Melbourne Cup

How to pick a winner

The Melbourne Cup, the horse race that stops a Nation. In fact, more than a nation, as expats, and others, from all over the world stop whatever they are doing and focus for two minutes on a horse race.

Together with those who purport to be expert punters and who claim to know a thing or two about the fillies, people who know absolutely nothing about form, or bloodlines, or jockeys, or trainers and from every walk of life have a go at picking that elusive winner.

Many of those two minute experts use methods that could never be deemed to be scientific nor, at any stretch of one's imagination, be based on anything probabilistic, but, hey, it works for them. And if it helps pick a winner then, ipso facto, it becomes a reliable method.

We have pulled together some data to help in your decision making, compare it with looking into the entrails of the Wombat to pick a winner!

Saddlecloth Numbers: Horses wearing an even numbered saddlecloth have been first past the post 52.3% of the times whereas for those wearing an odd numbered saddlecloth it has been 47.7%. Saddlecloths numbered 1 to 12 have won 62.9% of the Race and those numbered 13 to 24 have won 37.1%.

The most successful numbers have been 1, 4 and 12 which together have won near to 25% of the times the Race has been run.

Age: Four-year-olds and five-year-olds are evenly split and have won the Race 66.4% of the times, with six-year-olds taking the Trophy 21.9% and with 7, 8 & 9 year olds winning a total of 11.7% of the times.

Colour:By far Bay coloured horses have proven winners with 45.5% of the times, Brown's and Chestnut's are equally divided and come in at 48.3%. Grey's & Black's make up the small difference.

Number of Words in Name: One word names for horses have made up 55.7% of winners, two word names 40.9% and three word names at 3.4%.

Sex: 42.6% of winners have been Stallions, 32.9% Geldings, 12.8% Colts & 10.7% Mares and Fillies.

Weight Carried: The Average carried has been 52.1kg, with the Median 52kg and the Modal weight 52.5kg.

Prices: Favourites and Equal-Favourites have won 30 times. Horses at 10 to 1 have won 14 Melbourne Cups and there have been 13 winners at 8 to 1.

Based on all this data we predict the Melbourne Cup will be won by one of these horses, Shocking (1), Campanologist (2), So You Think (3), Holberg (19), Precedence (20) or Linton (22).

And if all these statistics mean nothing to you then you can look to the Stars and maybe your numbers can be found there. For:

1. Aries
2. Taurus
3. Gemini
4. Cancer
5. Leo
6. Virgo
7. Libra
8. Scorpio
9. Sagittarius
10. Capricorn
11. Aquarius
12. Pisces

Good luck with whatever method you use to pick your winner.