Is Holden VYing for market dominance?

Compared to Ford's all-out marketing campaign with its 2003 model-year BA Falcon, Holden's taken a rather, well, quiet approach.

Few website details, no press releases, no hype, no hoopla - nothing.

This could be cause for concern as the VY Commodore was originally scheduled for a September 2002 release - and that's none too far away now.

We can confirm, however, that the new VY Commodore will definitely launch in late September and, yes, Holden will be initiating a media blitz at this time, if you will.

But unlike Ford, Holden intends to market the new Commodore upon release, rather than go all out early on in the game.

Such a move could be seen in two ways:

1. Holden is very excited by its new Commodore and, having seen the new-look Falcon - which, it could be said, borrows a few VX styling cues - has decided it won't need to compete until the VY is in show rooms, because the VY has more visual appeal.

2. This could be the more risky scenario for Holden execs, where they are relying on the Commodore's impressive sales lead, which is nothing short of amazing, and simply unveil the car in late September, confident that the sales won't slump.

In retrospect, these two different takes on marketing could be seen as the ideal way in how to properly market a new car. Take the steady, slowly route or perhaps create a buzz among the car buying public prior to launch.

Who will win? You'd have to say Holden, but the new BA Ford is likely to give the best-seller a much harder run, thanks to its more sophisticated design, increased power and standard features.

Holden's Director of Sales and Marketing, Ross McKenzie, believes that given the right economic conditions Holden could achieve a record sales year - and an early uptake of VY's would help this become a reality.

"Even if interest rates do rise even further we have a strong schedule of vehicle launches such as our new AWD Cruze, Combo, the all-new Vectra and of course the VY Commodore, along with value-added packs to maximise benefits for customers during the second half of 2002.

"We are working overtime to capture the ultimate prize – record Holden sales for a single year. The record of 173,854 has stood since 1973 when the HQ ruled Australian roads and we are determined to beat it in 2002."

Will the VY Commodore give Holden the boost it needs to overcome the HQ, or will Ford bounce back, denying GM a well-deserved accolade?

At any rate, it's likely to be a hot topic in bars and loungerooms across Australia.

Adding fuel to the fire, we came across this intriguing post from the Ford Performance Falcons Forum: "G day, i work in the prototype tooling area at Holden's at elizabeth in SA and have seen the new VY Commodore, and was disappointed.

"Our bosses have talked to people who have seen both cars and its a known fact that the AV [BA Falcon] looks a lot better than the VY. I am happy and sad at the same time!" Whether or not this post has any validity, we'll leave up to you guys.

But what do we know about the new VY Commodore? Not a lot - Holden is very good at plugging leaks. There have been a few spy shots seen in recent times, but even they have been well disguised.

The new VY is expected to be styled very closely to the Cross8, which is due for release in 2003. We can expect the current 'twin-kidney' grille to be replaced by an almost Mazda-esque pentagon. When you compare the old with the new grille, however, it's almost as if the line down the middle has just been rotated 90-degrees, to form a new horizontal line, which is used to break up the grille area.

Expect new paint schemes, a more modern look than what many are expecting, with revised front and rear ends and, though Holden isn't allowed to comment on any specifics until the launch, rumour has it that the ride and handling will be much improved over the VX Series II Commodore.

Engine wise, not much is known, though the 5.7-litre Gen III V8 is guaranteed to make a comeback - with rumours putting output up by 5kW to 230kW. As for the ageing 3.8-litre Ecotec V6, rumour has it that power may be upped from 152kW to something more like 160-165kW, but don't expect an all-new mill for a few years yet. Also, talk that a new five-speed automatic gearbox would be mated to the uprated V6 will raise a few eyebrows around town.

Visually, the front-end will likely resemble the Cross8's, while the tail lights are rumoured to be more like the current Magna's, with pretty circles inside triangular lenses - gone will be existing curvaceous tail lights. We can also expect new-look alloy wheels for most of the range and, interestingly, there is also quite a buzz surrounding the HSV design studios...

The new face of the VY Commodore is also highly likely to replace the current front-end of the Monaro. 18,000 new-look 'Naros will be sent to the US for sale as the Pontiac GTO.

Like Ford, Holden will be releasing an updated Ute at the same time as the sedan, plus we will get to see the funky new SS Commodores, Calais, Statesmans and Berlinas, which could surprise many when they arrive in later September.

On the whole, the new look is likely to be a whole lot more angular than the curvy face of the current VX, though Holden is still insisting that the VY will be more conservative than most anticipate. A red herring or the naked truth? We'll know soon enough...